Upstart Macro Index (UMI) - Activity log

May 30, 2023

UMI increased slightly to 1.52 in April. UMI has hovered around 1.50 for the past six months, suggesting Americans’ financial health is holding up despite the uncertain economic outlook. This stability aligns with other economic indicators:

The personal savings rate dipped to 4.1 in April but remains ahead of January (4.0), and considerably higher than October 2022 (3.0) after five months of increases.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged in April at 62.6%. While still below pre-pandemic levels, the gap is largely due to population aging.
Inflation eased to 4.9% in April, the CPI’s lowest level since April 2021.

Revisions to UMI are posted weekly. Changes since the last monthly update:

Mar UMI was revised from 1.50 to 1.51
Feb UMI was unchanged at 1.51
Jan UMI was revised from 1.42 to 1.39

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

The statements and information on this site are current as of March 22, 2023, unless another date with respect to any information is indicated, and are provided for informational purposes only. Past UMI performance can provide no assurance and is not indicative of future UMI results. UMI is based on historical data and Upstart’s analysis of the losses within Upstart-powered loan portfolios and is specific to Upstart’s borrower base. UMI is not intended to measure the macroeconomic risks in terms of losses of loan portfolios or asset classes that are not Upstart-powered loans, including loans held by other segments of the U.S. population. It is not designed to measure the current state of the overall economy or to measure or predict future macroeconomic conditions, trends or risks. It is also not designed to measure or predict the future performance of Upstart-powered loans or of Upstart’s other products, overall financial results of operations or stock price. We expect that our research and development efforts to improve UMI could result in changes or revisions to current or past UMI values.

All forward-looking statements or information on this site are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that Upstart expected. Any forward-looking statements or information on this site are only as of the date hereof. Upstart undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or information on this site as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. More information about these risks and uncertainties is provided in Upstart’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which may be obtained by visiting Upstart’s investor relations website at www.upstart.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

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