Upstart Macro Index (UMI) – Activity log

December 23, 2025

UMI increased slightly to 1.49 in November, but remains below the briefly elevated range we saw in Q3. Data for prior months have improved by 4-5 points since last publication. We note that prepayments remain elevated and are associated with improving credit performance.

Consumer price inflation moderated to 2.7% year over year in November, though the release may reflect temporary data distortions from the missing October report. Recent labor market indicators suggest modest job growth and a roughly stable unemployment rate around 4.6%. Together, these signals support some cautious optimism on the inflation and employment outlook.


Revisions to UMI are posted weekly. Changes since the last monthly email update:

  • October was revised from 1.48 to 1.43.
  • September revised from 1.54 to 1.49.
  • August was revised from 1.57 to 1.53.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

The statements and information on this site are current as of January 6, 2025, unless another date with respect to any information is indicated, and are provided for informational purposes only. Past UMI performance can provide no assurance and is not indicative of future UMI results. UMI is based on historical data and Upstart’s analysis of the losses within Upstart-powered loan portfolios and is specific to Upstart’s borrower base. UMI is not intended to measure the macroeconomic risks in terms of losses of loan portfolios or asset classes that are not Upstart-powered loans, including loans held by other segments of the U.S. population. It is not designed to measure the current state of the overall economy or to measure or predict future macroeconomic conditions, trends or risks. It is also not designed to measure or predict the future performance of Upstart-powered loans or of Upstart’s other products, overall financial results of operations or stock price. We expect that our research and development efforts to improve UMI could result in changes or revisions to current or past UMI values.

All forward-looking statements or information on this site are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that Upstart expected. Any forward-looking statements or information on this site are only as of the date hereof. Upstart undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements or information on this site as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. More information about these risks and uncertainties is provided in Upstart’s public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which may be obtained by visiting Upstart’s investor relations website at www.upstart.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

For the Upstart Macro Index Terms of Use, go here.